Monday, April 27, 2020

Victor Davis Hanson: COVID-19 and the Lessons of History

HooverInstitution - Recorded April 9, 2020, 11AM PST

Hoover Institution Fellow Victor Davis Hanson on COVID-19 and the Lessons of History.

The Hoover Institution presents an online virtual briefing series on pressing policy issues, including health care, the economy, democratic governance, and national security. Briefings will include thoughtful and informed analysis from our top scholars.


Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; his focus is classics and military history.

12:05 COVID-19 is the first epidemic where models were developed without knowing the actual number of people that are affected. Models are used to predict potential impact in terms of number of deaths and are used in developing public policy. If the model is not based on good (or no) data, its predictions are off and public policy decisions have the potential to be wrong. If the number of affected people is 10 times higher than predicted, the number of deaths per thousand is 10 times less.

14:20 Models have consequences. Dire warnings make people hysterical and they take drastic measures.

No comments: